Jim Gavin’s shock exit from the presidential election dramatically changes the political character of the race. Voters on 24 October must now decide whether Catherine Connolly or Heather Humphreys will serve as President for the next seven years.
With Gavin gone, Heather Humphreys of Fine Gael is now the sole establishment candidate. Her objective is to restore the Áras to sleepy irrelevance after fourteen years of Michael D. Higgins using his position to speak out on issues like Gaza and workers’ rights. Catherine Connolly, however, is the left challenger looking to continue along the course set by Higgins.
Connolly enjoys the support of liberal-left groups like the pro-capitalist Labour Party, Social Democrats and Greens. She also enjoys the support of socialist organisations such as People Before Profit (PBP) and the Socialist Party. Both organisations are enthusiastically and energetically backing Connolly. Importantly, Sinn Féin are also on board to bring to bear their organisational and financial support.
Connolly’s Campaign
What does this coalescing behind Connolly represent? Does it mark the first buds of a left/liberal bloc in Irish politics: something long threatened but never actually realised? That certainly seems to be the hope of PBP. Paul Murphy, a PBP TD, commented recently that: “Catherine Connolly and the coalition of the left she has built gives us hope. Hope that by carrying her message into the Áras, we can strengthen a real left alternative – one that puts people suffering from the housing and cost-of-living crises before those who profit from them. This campaign is about more than the presidency. It’s about showing people that the government can be defeated, that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s century of rule can end, and that ordinary people have the power to bring real change.”
Close co-operation between parties like Sinn Fein, PBP-Solidarity, Labour and the Social Democrats could form the basis for agreement of a minimum programme to put to the electorate at the next general election. There is a palpable appetite for a credible electoral alternative to endless Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael led governments.
However, Militant Left does not believe that a genuine “coalition of the left” could involve parties, for example the Labour Party or the Greens, with a record of taking part in the austerity governments that helped create the crisis in housing, health and chronic lack of public services. While Sinn Féin is widely seen as being a party to the left of FF and FG in the south, they do not seek to go beyond capitalism and in practice, as we see in the North, they are a divisive force who administer cuts and austerity to the working-class.
A genuine coalition of the left – in the form of a mass working-class party – would unite the 600,000 strong membership of the trade unions; the many tens of thousands marching against the Gaza genocide; housing campaigners, and the socialist left. The fact that PBP are advocating a “left alternative” with political parties that are to the right of it politically and are not socialist – is a big mistake.
Connolly’s Programme
The genocide in Gaza and the ongoing war in Ukraine are important reference points to Connolly’s campaign and programme. She is firmly in favour of military neutrality. She is a critic of US imperialism, and she has highlighted the dangers of European Union militarisation. Catherine Connolly is also a firm supporter of the Palestinian struggle. Should she be elected then she will likely take the opportunity to use her position to speak out on these issues. Conflict with the government of the day is a prospect, as is clear from cabinet ministers’ attacks on her remarks about German rearmament.
Connolly can also be described as ‘left republican’ in her approach to the unresolved national question. Her visit to Belfast during the summer and her stated support for Irish unification under capitalism will surely have strengthened her appeal to Sinn Féin’s support base. Connolly’s stated views on unification do not, however, reflect the political complexity of the North’s deeply divided society.
Connolly has very little to say about the viciously unequal economic structure of Ireland. Class issues of persistent low pay, exploitation of workers, severe and worsening wealth inequality, workers’ rights and collective bargaining are, to be fair, not usually central to a presidential election campaign. But a candidate supported by socialist-left forces should surely place these class issues to the forefront? Perhaps as the campaign moves into its last two weeks Connolly will set out an economic programme.
A Connolly Victory?
Catherine Connolly stands a very strong chance of being elected. Polling gives her a significant lead over Heather Humphreys, who represents a conservative political tradition that is deeply repellent to most people. Humphreys’ record as Minister for Social Protection confirms she has no problem with austerity and a harsh social protection regime. While her support for bloodsports, which might play well with some elements in rural Ireland, does not sit well with the majority.
To many, Connolly will represent a clear alternative. A vote for Connolly can also be used to give the government a kicking. A Connolly victory would constitute a significant protest vote and could be a significant complicating factor in, for instance, the establishment’s campaign to end the Triple Lock or indeed to join NATO.
In contrast to Jim Gavin’s experience, media smears against Connolly have so far failed to register. Perhaps it is reflective of wider political trends and consciousness that media attempts to undermine Connolly over her decision to hire a former republican prisoner have fallen flat; most people see it as a non-issue. On the other hand, people were outraged by Jim Gavin keeping rental payments from a former tenant. Something which ultimately forced him to withdraw from the campaign.
If Catherine Connolly emerges victorious on 24 October, now a distinct possibility, it will be a major shock for the establishment. It will also represent a challenge to those socialist organisations who are backing her campaign for the presidency of the anti-worker, capitalist Irish state.